The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) recently released a report on youth and young adult pathway changes. More specifically, the report sought to identify 10 pathway changes with “the greatest potential to improve employment outcomes” for this population, considering the impact that pathway changes could have on a person’s future during critical junctures of their lives.
The 10 pathway changes involve a variety of initiatives such as increasing educational attainment toward a certificate, associate degree or bachelor’s degree; specializing in CTE at the high school level; working in the skilled trades; and working in STEM fields. For this analysis, CEW researchers created the Pathways-to-Career policy simulation model that uses longitudinal data to identify the pathway changes that would best increase a student’s chances of working a “good job.” The report defines a “good job” as one that pays at least $38,000 for younger workers and at least $49,000 for workers 45 and older in 2020 dollars, with 30-year-old workers with good jobs earning a median salary of $57,000.
The overarching takeaway from the analysis is that layered pathway changes are almost twice as effective as any individual pathway change, therefore it is important to invest across all three domains: educational attainment, career training and work experience.
When it comes to specializing in CTE in high school, this pathway change was the most likely to lead to good jobs for youth who are expected to graduate from high school but do not plan to pursue a bachelor’s degree by age 22. CTE was also a particularly effective pathway change for white learners, male students and low socioeconomic status (SES) learners; somewhat effective for Black/African American learners; and not effective for Hispanic/Latino learners.
In addition, the analysis shows that pathway changes produce different effects based on students’ race/ethnicity, gender and SES:
- The single most effective pathway change leading to “good jobs” is earning a bachelor’s degree by age 22.
- Most pathway changes are more effective for men than for women, particularly for men without a high school diploma in low-wage jobs who transition to skilled trades occupations.
- For Black students, earning a bachelor’s degree and working in a STEM or other high-paying occupation are the most effective pathway changes.
- For Hispanic/Latino learners, the most effective pathway changes are earning a certificate, associate degree or bachelor’s degree.
Researchers noted the importance of prioritizing pathway changes considering both effectiveness and the total number of individuals who could be affected by a particular change as well as differential impacts across race/ethnicity, gender and class. The best approach is to make strategically targeted interventions for underserved groups over a one-size-fits-all solution. For instance, the findings above suggest value in promoting CTE pathways that incorporate postsecondary credentials and lead to high-paying jobs for all learners and particularly for Black/African American students and Hispanic/Latino students.
One important caveat to this analysis is that it is based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, an ongoing study that tracks the outcomes of a nationally representative sample of individuals who were aged 12-16 in the late 1990s. Therefore, this data predates many innovations in CTE program offerings and delivery that have occurred in the past 25 years. The researchers acknowledge that their analysis may understate the current impact of CTE on increasing access to good jobs.
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